UAE faces five‑day rain spell with gusty winds and possible hail

Rainfall is expected across the UAE over the next five days, with eastern areas likely to see the most precipitation, while showers could also reach Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Al Ain, according to Dr Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).

Rainfall outlook for the coming days

Showers may affect eastern parts of the country alongside Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Al Ain, with strong winds raising dust, reducing visibility and rainwater expected to flow through wadis.

Dr Ahmed Habib said rainfall had already been recorded around Hatta, and changing weather conditions are expected to bring convective clouds and showers to several parts of the country through the week.

He noted, “For five days…everyday, we have rainfall especially in the Eastern parts of the country, and sometimes in the North as well. Sometimes also between Al Ain and Abu Dhabi. Today, we have rainfall over the Hatta area.”

Weather system drivers and expected shift

The weather system is being driven by a surface low-pressure system extending towards the UAE from the south‑east, alongside a trough in the upper atmosphere.

The system is expected to shift on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing conditions favourable for further cloud formation and rainfall.

Habib said the changing position of the weather system would influence where clouds develop over the coming days.

He explained, “We have extension of low pressure in surface layer coming from South‑East and also, we have extension of trough or low pressure in upper air from Saturday and Sunday. But on Tuesday and Wednesday there will be a change in the low‑pressure system extending from the south and south‑west towards the UAE.”

This shift is expected to encourage convective cloud formation, beginning in eastern areas on Tuesday before extending towards the north and some coastal areas, particularly in the west.

Moisture moving towards the UAE from the Arabian Sea, carried by south‑westerly winds, is also contributing to the unsettled conditions.

Habib added, “Although the low‑pressure system is expected to weaken gradually on October 23 and 24, moisture remaining in the upper atmosphere could support cloud formation over the mountains.”

Potential hazards: hail, strong winds and wadi flow

The NCM forecast for Tuesday, October 20 indicates a chance of convective clouds developing in the east and extending to some inland and western areas by afternoon, accompanied by rainfall.

Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday, October 21.

On Thursday, showers may develop over eastern and western areas, while Friday is forecast to be fair to partly cloudy, with periods of cloudiness in the east and west.

Alongside rainfall, some convective clouds could produce small hail, although Habib said this was not expected to develop into a significant hailstorm.

He noted, “There is also a possibility of small hail associated with convective clouds. Strong updrafts and high moisture levels can lead to hail formation, which may then fall with downdrafts. However, the hail is expected to be small and is unlikely to have a significant impact on the ground.”

The weather could also bring sudden gusts of wind during cloudy spells, with the NCM forecast saying winds may reach 50kmph on Tuesday and Wednesday, potentially lifting dust and reducing visibility.

Habib said rainfall could be particularly significant over mountainous areas in the eastern UAE, raising the possibility of water flowing through wadis.

He advised, “Residents planning trips to the mountains or wadis should exercise caution as conditions develop.”

Humidity, fog and temperature context

Humidity is also expected to increase overnight and during early morning hours in some coastal and inland areas, with a possibility of fog or mist in places.

Meanwhile, temperatures across the UAE have been around 1°C to 1.5°C above the seasonal average this October.

Habib added, “High humidity and elevated moisture levels in the atmosphere were contributing to the uncomfortable feeling of heat, even though recorded temperatures were only marginally higher than usual.”