UAE real estate shifts to more balanced growth in third quarter of 2026

The UAE real estate sector has entered a period of more measured growth during the third quarter of 2026, with analysts pointing to a maturing market that is shifting away from speculative gains toward end-user and long-term investment demand.

Transaction volumes have moderated from the exceptional highs recorded in 2025, but underlying drivers such as population growth, economic expansion, business migration and international investor interest continue to support activity, according to recent market data.

Transaction trends and buyer behaviour

In Dubai, residential transactions during Q3 2026 reached an estimated Dh70.8 billion to Dh72.6 billion, spread across approximately 34,000 to 34,500 deals. While the figures are lower than a year earlier, analysts attribute much of the moderation to a reduction in new project launches and a natural normalisation following an extraordinary growth cycle.

A notable development is the strengthening of the ready-home market. Transaction values for completed properties climbed to Dh25.1 billion in the quarter, reflecting demand from residents seeking immediate occupancy and stable rental income. Off-plan properties continued to account for roughly 72% of transactions, indicating sustained confidence in the UAE’s long-term outlook.

Property consultants report that buyers are becoming more selective, focusing on quality, location, pricing and long-term value rather than short-term capital appreciation.

Notable transactions and project milestones

Mondrian Al Marjan Island Beach Residences, developed by ELEVATE in partnership with Ennismore, recorded a single transaction worth Dh73 million, marking a significant milestone for the project, which is now 75% sold. The deal, completed last month, involved a buyer from North America and covered four homes: a five-bedroom penthouse, a four-bedroom penthouse, a three-bedroom townhouse and a three-bedroom residence.

Construction progress is keeping pace with sales, with shoring works fully completed and piling works 80% finished. In August 2026 alone, the project recorded more than Dh100 million in closed sales.

Zeeshaan Shah, Founder and Chairman of ELEVATE, commented: “We are the most successful and fastest-selling project on Al Marjan Island in the last 12 months. It is the result of an uncompromising commitment to building something genuinely exceptional in a market that can tell the difference. What we are witnessing in Ras Al Khaimah right now is something that, frankly, most people are still sleeping on. The Wynn Al Marjan Island opens in less than twelve months. This is a $5.7 billion development, the largest single hospitality project ever built in this region. As the island moves closer to a new era of tourism and hospitality, the market is entering a phase where quality, scarcity and timing will play an increasingly important role in investment decisions.”

Separately, Casagrand, a major Indian real estate developer, has appointed Jaseera Building Contracting LLC as the main contractor for Casagrand HERMINA, its first project in the UAE. The appointment marks the next construction phase at the development, with foundation works already complete and the main contractor formally onboarded. The project is on schedule for handover in the second quarter of 2028.

Luthfullah K, Director Dubai at Casagrand, said: “Bringing Jaseera Building Contracting on board as our main contractor is an important step for Casagrand HERMINA and for every buyer who has placed their trust in us. Dubai Islands is one of the city’s most promising waterfront destinations, and its growth as a place to live, visit and invest is gathering pace. Our responsibility is to match that momentum with disciplined execution on the ground. With foundation works complete and a capable contracting partner in place, we are well positioned to deliver HERMINA on time and to the standard our customers expect from Casagrand.”

Mohammed Konikkal, Managing Director of Jaseera Building Contracting LLC, said: “We are proud to partner with Casagrand on HERMINA. Casagrand brings a strong track record of delivery and a clear focus on quality, and we share that commitment. Our team is ready to move into the next phase of construction, and we look forward to working closely with Casagrand to deliver a development that meets the highest standards of build quality, safety and timely completion.”

Located at Dubai Islands, Casagrand HERMINA continues to draw interest from regional and international buyers seeking long-term value in a waterfront residential destination.

Market outlook

The dominant theme shaping UAE real estate in 2026 is market normalisation. Transaction volumes are no longer rising at the breakneck pace seen in previous years, but underlying demand remains resilient. Ready-home sales are gaining momentum, off-plan continues to attract investors, and price movements are becoming more measured as supply gradually increases. Analysts describe the shift as evidence of a healthier market rather than a weaker one, with growing participation from end-users helping create greater stability. If current demographic and economic trends continue, the sector appears well positioned for sustainable expansion rather than another short-lived boom.